North Dakota St.

Conference:	Sum
Expected RPI:	210.0
Current RPI:	210
Expected SOS:	184
Current SOS:	184
Current Record:	12-17
Expected Record:	12-17
Current Conf Record:	6-10
Expected Conf Record:	6-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-7
Current OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC Record:	6-7
Expected OOC RPI:	162
Expected OOC SOS:	169

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-17	210.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for North Dakota St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	UC Santa Barbara (127.0)	BW	A	85-66	L	0%
11-13	USC (34.0)	P12	A	75-65	L	0%
11-17	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	54-57	W	100%
11-22	Florida A&M (332.0)	MEAC	H	80-66	W	100%
11-25	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	94-58	W	100%
11-28	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	54-50	L	0%
11-30	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	A	83-59	L	0%
12-4	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	H	58-71	L	0%
12-9	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	A	79-88	W	100%
12-18	Arizona (13.0)	P12	A	83-53	L	0%
12-21	UNC Wilmington (245.0)	CAA	N	100-63	W	100%
12-22	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	51-63	W	100%
1-3	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	H	80-87	L	0%
1-6	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	A	79-84	W	100%
1-11	Denver (224.0)	Sum	H	61-67	L	0%
1-13	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	H	82-64	W	100%
1-16	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	77-86	L	0%
1-20	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	A	92-88	L	0%
1-25	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	H	73-58	W	100%
1-27	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	H	80-69	W	100%
2-1	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	A	82-63	L	0%
2-3	South Dakota (91.0)	Sum	H	72-76	L	0%
2-8	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	A	67-66	L	0%
2-10	Denver (224.0)	Sum	A	66-63	L	0%
2-17	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	H	72-84	L	0%
2-22	Western Illinois (302.0)	Sum	A	82-74	L	0%
2-24	Nebraska Omaha (284.0)	Sum	A	62-84	W	100%
3-4	Fort Wayne (209.0)	Sum	N	82-86	W	100%
3-5	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	N	78-57	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

North Dakota St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

North Dakota St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against North Dakota St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
North Dakota St.	Sum	26.63	26.63	43.80	43.80	-3.30	-3.30
South Dakota St.	Sum	6.22	6.22	77.78	77.78	3.46	3.46
Fort Wayne	Sum	6.00	6.00	48.00	48.00	-0.24	-0.24
South Dakota	Sum	4.52	4.52	75.00	75.00	2.26	2.26
Denver	Sum	4.43	4.43	42.31	42.31	-0.68	-0.68
Oral Roberts	Sum	4.42	4.42	26.92	26.92	-2.04	-2.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	4.40	4.40	25.93	25.93	-2.12	-2.12
Western Illinois	Sum	4.37	4.37	31.82	31.82	-1.59	-1.59
Missouri St.	MVC	3.60	3.60	53.33	53.33	0.24	0.24
North Dakota	BSky	3.53	3.53	32.14	32.14	-1.26	-1.26
Stetson	ASun	1.82	1.82	29.63	29.63	-0.74	-0.74
UC Santa Barbara	BW	1.81	1.81	68.97	68.97	0.69	0.69
USC	P12	1.80	1.80	66.67	66.67	0.60	0.60
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.78	1.78	25.00	25.00	-0.89	-0.89
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.78	1.78	64.52	64.52	0.52	0.52
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	1.78	1.78	79.31	79.31	1.04	1.04
Arizona	P12	1.77	1.77	78.79	78.79	1.02	1.02
UNC Wilmington	CAA	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
UTEP	CUSA	1.72	1.72	34.48	34.48	-0.54	-0.54
Montana St.	BSky	0.38	0.38	36.67	36.67	-0.10	-0.10
Drake	MVC	0.37	0.37	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.27	0.27	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.26	0.26	77.42	77.42	0.14	0.14
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.23	0.23	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.23	0.23	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.19	0.19	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Valparaiso	MVC	0.19	0.19	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.18	0.18	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.16	0.16	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.15	0.15	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Kansas	B12	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	6.67	6.67	-0.13	-0.13
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
UMKC	WAC	0.14	0.14	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Mississippi	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.14	0.14	84.38	84.38	0.09	0.09
Howard	MEAC	0.14	0.14	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Oregon	P12	0.13	0.13	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.12	0.12	10.71	10.71	-0.10	-0.10
Kentucky	SEC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
San Jose St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	10.34	10.34	-0.09	-0.09
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
TCU	B12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Hawaii	BW	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.11	0.11	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
UNLV	MWC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.11	0.11	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Utah	P12	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.09	0.09	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Indiana	B10	0.09	0.09	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.09	0.09	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas	SEC	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.09	0.09	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.09	0.09	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Cal Poly	BW	0.09	0.09	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.09	0.09	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.09	0.09	12.50	12.50	-0.06	-0.06
Iowa	B10	0.09	0.09	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.09	0.09	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	16.67	16.67	-0.06	-0.06
UTSA	CUSA	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.08	0.08	62.07	62.07	0.02	0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.08	0.08	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
American	Pat	0.07	0.07	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Butler	BE	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Milwaukee	Horz	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Navy	Pat	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.06	0.06	14.29	14.29	-0.04	-0.04
College of Charleston	CAA	0.06	0.06	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Portland St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.05	0.05	76.67	76.67	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01